This appendix provides the scoring framework and tier classifications referenced throughout the series.
Investment Tier Classifications
Tier 1: Investable Without Heroic Structuring
| Country | Key Strengths | Key Risks |
|---|---|---|
| Morocco | World-class logistics (Tanger Med), FX stability, regulatory predictability | Limited market depth, regional concentration |
| Mauritius | Institutional credibility, financial services hub, treaty network | Small market size, external dependence |
| Botswana | Governance quality, fiscal prudence, diamond revenue management | Commodity concentration, limited diversification |
| Namibia | Rule of law, mining framework, SA integration | Small market, inequality constraints |
Tier 2: Investable With Structuring
| Country | Key Strengths | Key Risks |
|---|---|---|
| Kenya | Private sector depth, regional hub, capital markets | Political volatility, FX pressure, debt load |
| Ghana | Post-restructuring discipline, resource base | IMF programme constraints, fiscal fragility |
| Senegal | Political stability, oil/gas potential | Execution risk, limited industrial base |
| Rwanda | Execution discipline, credibility infrastructure | Small market, political transition risk |
| Côte d'Ivoire | Regional hub, port infrastructure | Francophone complexity, political history |
Tier 3: Narrative Markets
| Country | Key Strengths | Key Risks |
|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | Market size, private sector dynamism | FX rationing, grid collapse, security, discretion |
| South Africa | Institutional depth, capital markets | Eskom/Transnet decay, policy uncertainty |
| Egypt | Strategic location, Suez revenue | Permanent FX stress, military economy |
| Ethiopia | Growth history, dam completion | Default status, restructuring uncertainty |
Scoring Pillars (0–5 each)
Pillar 1: Enforcement & Rule System
- Contract enforceability in practice
- Dispute resolution credibility
- Administrative predictability
- Corruption control effectiveness
Pillar 2: FX & Repatriation
- Currency convertibility
- Transfer rule clarity
- Central bank credibility
- Offshore structuring necessity
Pillar 3: Fiscal & Sovereign Interface
- Debt sustainability
- Arrears culture
- Tax surprise risk
- Regulatory stability
Pillar 4: Security & Shock Absorption
- Political stability
- Policy continuity
- Stress response predictability
- Contingent liability risk
Pillar 5: Project-to-State Fit
- Alignment with national priorities
- Political cycle survivability
- Local partnership quality
- DFI/multilateral coverage
Decision Rules
| Total Score | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| 20–25 | Investable: Proceed normally |
| 15–19 | Conditional: Heavy structuring and priced protections required |
| 10–14 | High Caution: Proceed only with offshore revenue, strong covenants, credible counterparties |
| <10 | Decline: Unless rescue or distressed mandate explicitly priced as such |
Sample Country Scores (Indicative)
| Country | Pillar 1 | Pillar 2 | Pillar 3 | Pillar 4 | Pillar 5 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| Mauritius | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| Kenya | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| Ghana | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| Nigeria | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| South Africa | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| Ethiopia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
Scores are indicative and should be updated based on current conditions and specific project characteristics.
Structuring Toolkit Reference
For Tier 2 Markets (Score 15–19)
- Ring-fenced project accounts
- Offshore escrow waterfalls
- Political risk insurance (MIGA, DFC, ATI)
- Step-in rights with defined triggers
- International arbitration (ICSID, LCIA, ICC)
For Tier 3 Markets (Score 10–14)
All Tier 2 tools, plus:
- Hard currency revenue (exports, offshore contracts)
- Shorter tenors
- Enhanced sponsor support
- DFI umbrella structures
- Government guarantee where credible
Walk-Away Indicators
- FX rationing with no offshore solution
- Active default or restructuring without resolution path
- Security conditions preventing site access
- Counterparty with history of non-payment
- Regulatory framework subject to arbitrary change
This framework is for analytical purposes. Specific investment decisions require detailed due diligence and professional advice.